CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-07T20:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-07T20:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33829/-1
CME Note: Wide, bright CME seen to the southwest in SOHO C2/C3 seemingly composed of two or more overlapping loops with internal structure clearly visible and no cavity. Presence of very faint shock may possibly be seen due south in LASCO C2 running difference imagery and may begin to reveal itself to the north-northeast in late SOHO frames after 22:30Z, though disjoint from the main CME body. Associated with a sympathetic eruption resulting from the long duration X2.1/X1.0-class flares (AR3842) located farther behind the southwestern limb than where the X2.1 takes place (W60) as seen in SDO 171 imagery; the CME appears to originate closer to the southwestern limb. Fast, widely opening field lines are also observed in GOES SUVI 284.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-11T02:34Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -1.25 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-10-11T03:49Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement